VOL. 1 · ISSUE 14 · WEEK OF AUGUST 24, 2026
More Inventory. Not Always More Leverage.
Buyers have more choices. That does not mean every seller has lost negotiating power.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
More Choice Is Not the Same as More Power
Housing inventory has improved in many markets. That is good news for buyers. But the next conclusion — “therefore buyers now have leverage” — is too simplistic. The evidence is increasingly segmented.
In Montgomery County, the latest county data show 39.1% of homes selling above list price while 20.0% of listings recorded price drops, with an overall sale-to-list ratio of 100.0%. Those conditions coexist because they are not describing the same property.
6.65%
Freddie Mac 30-year fixed · week ending August 20, 2026
5.95%
Freddie Mac 15-year fixed · week ending August 20, 2026
6.698%
Optimal Blue 30-year conforming · observed lock data · August 21
Optimal Blue OBMMI and Freddie Mac PMMS use different methodologies. Neither represents an individual borrower’s available rate.
More inventory gives buyers more choices. The specific property determines whether those choices create leverage.
SIGNAL VS. NOISE
More Listings Do Not Automatically Create a Buyer’s Market
| Noise | Signal |
|---|---|
| “Inventory is rising, so buyers finally have the upper hand.” | Not everywhere. Inventory improves choice. Leverage still depends on property condition, pricing, competition, location, and seller motivation. |
| “If a listing sits, the seller must be desperate.” | Not necessarily. Some sellers have flexibility. Others have substantial equity, limited urgency, or simply priced incorrectly. |
| “If homes still sell at list price, buyers have no leverage.” | Leverage can appear through closing-cost assistance, repairs, financing support, settlement timing, contingency structure, or seller-paid concessions. |
| “One county statistic tells you whether the market is hot or cold.” | Property type, neighborhood, price band, condition, and recurring costs create different negotiating environments inside the same county. |
More choices create opportunity. They do not create leverage automatically.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
The Market Is Becoming More Selective
A market can simultaneously produce bidding wars and price reductions. That is not contradictory. It is what segmentation looks like.
Property Quality
Well located, properly priced, well presented, difficult-to-replace homes can still command competition regardless of broader inventory.
Seller Position
Leverage increases when longer exposure, carrying costs, prior price reductions, deadlines, or thin demand create genuine motivation.
Buyer Constraint
The strongest outcome depends on what the buyer actually needs: payment, cash, repairs, flexibility, certainty, or price.
6.698%
30-year conforming · OBMMI · Aug. 21
6.337%
30-year VA · OBMMI · Aug. 21
6.474%
30-year FHA · OBMMI · Aug. 21
Optimal Blue OBMMI observed lock data, last updated August 21, 2026. See the PDF for the full rate panel including jumbo, USDA and 15-year conforming.
Negotiation is not about asking for everything. It is about identifying which variable has the greatest value — and where the other side has flexibility.
HOUSING MATH
Price Reduction or Concession?
The same seller dollars can create very different buyer outcomes. This is a conceptual $10,000 example — not a quote or universal calculation.
1 · Price Reduction
Lowers purchase price and loan amount, but the monthly benefit spreads across the mortgage term.
2 · Closing-Cost Credit
May reduce cash required at closing, preserve reserves, and improve post-closing liquidity.
3 · Permanent Buydown
May reduce the permanent rate depending on pricing and program limits. Value depends on cost, break-even, holding period, and loan type.
4 · Temporary Buydown
Can reduce early payments when the permanent payment is sustainable and temporary relief solves a legitimate transition need.
The Three Numbers: preferred payment · maximum payment · cash to protect.
A good negotiation does not simply get something from the seller. It gets the thing that matters most.
SOUTHERN MARYLAND PULSE
Same Region. Different Negotiating Environments.
Latest available county data — June 2026. Publication date and observation period differ.
St. Mary’s County
Redfin closed-sale market
$487,624 median sale price
+9.6% YoY
165 homes sold
41 days median DOM, sold
Realtor.com listing market
$475,000 median listing price
575 active listings
22 days median DOM, listings
Calvert County
Redfin closed-sale market
$498,494 median sale price
−6.8% YoY
160 homes sold
43 days median DOM, sold
99.7% sale-to-list
40.2% sold above list
16.0% price drops
Realtor.com listing market
$549,900 median listing price
581 active listings
22 days median DOM, listings
Charles County
Redfin closed-sale market
$442,751 median sale price
−4.5% YoY
261 homes sold
52 days median DOM, sold
100.1% sale-to-list
40.9% sold above list
17.6% price drops
Realtor.com listing market
$475,000 median listing price
1,228 active listings
29 days median DOM, listings
Beginning with Issue 14, closed-sale data is sourced from Redfin and listing-market data from Realtor.com Economic Research. Figures are not directly comparable to county values in prior issues, which used a different provider and methodology. Redfin DOM describes the closed-sale market; Realtor.com DOM describes the active listing market. They are not competing estimates of the same statistic.
Southern Maryland is not one market — and leverage is not one number.
REGIONAL SPOTLIGHT · MONTGOMERY COUNTY, MARYLAND
One County. Multiple Negotiating Markets.
Montgomery County is expensive. It is also too large and too diverse to describe as simply “hot” or “cool.”
$678,087
Median sale price · Redfin · June 2026
+5.1%
YoY sale-price change · Redfin
1,109
Homes sold · Redfin
35 days
Median DOM, sold · Redfin
100.0%
Sale-to-list ratio · Redfin
39.1%
Sold above list · Redfin
20.0%
Price drops · Redfin
$639,000
Median listing price · Realtor.com · June 2026
3,521
Active listings · Realtor.com
29 days
Median DOM, listings · Realtor.com
+7.25%
Active listings YoY · Realtor.com
Almost 40% of homes sold above asking price. At the same time, 20% recorded price reductions. Those statistics do not conflict — they describe different properties.
The county tells you the market. The property tells you the negotiation.
STEVE'S TAKE
Leverage Is Not a Market Label
For years, buyers were conditioned to ask whether we were in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. I think that question has become less useful.
I can show you a property today where the seller may have very little reason to negotiate. I can show you another property a few miles away where time, condition, price, carrying costs, or seller circumstances create meaningful opportunity. Same mortgage rates. Same county. Completely different negotiation.
Sometimes leverage means price. Sometimes it means cash. Sometimes it means payment. Sometimes it means repairs, flexibility, or certainty.
The market does not negotiate. People do. And the strongest strategy begins by understanding both sides of the transaction.
CONTINUE YOUR PLANNING
More Inventory Creates More Possibilities. Strategy Determines Which Ones Matter.
Additional resources: AskSteve247 · Home Search · Mortgage Calculators